DETAILS OF TRADING PICKS FOR THIS WEEK

F rom the beginning of last week the markets across the globe are experiencing the stock market version of a perfect Tsunami, where everything seems to be going wrong at the same time. On the BSE the Sensex fell by 652 points to end at 18,362 and the Nifty on the NSE lost 422 points to close at 5,383. However, the losses on the indices do not reflect the volatile intraday swings of over 1,000 points on the Sensex and 500 points on the Nifty during the course of the week.

Market breadth was extremely weak with several midcap and smallcap stocks locked at downward circuit filter. After scaling new highs during the early part of the new year Ignoring and overlooking negative developments like subprime, rising crude oil prices, fear on a US recession, weakening IIP numbers and the domestic political wrangles within the UPA, the markets displayed false sense of ‘decoupling' and ‘insulation' to scale new highs.

With reality now catching up, markets have ‘crashed', say observers. Barring fresh negative news flow markets may consolidate at current levels with positive bias in the week ahead. Refunds of Future and RPL IPO's may ease liquidity situation.

Key events to watch in the coming week will be the US Fed meet, RBI policy meeting and F&O settlement.

Chartists predict wide trading bands of 17,240 to 19,300 for the Sensex and 4,920 to 5,900 on the Nifty. The indices touched what might have been intermediate term bottoms during the week ended and they may retouch it over the next few weeks.

Key support levels on downside are 17,800 and 17,400 on the Sensex and 5,120 and 4,900 on the Nifty. Do not try to outguess short-term fluctuations. Very few investors can do it consistently enough to beat the market over the long term. The stock market may seem more risky and scary, but now is a good time to add depressed shares to your portfolio. The outlook is not as bad as many investors fear, spread your risk and keep your investment plan on track.

F&O segment M irroring thederivatives turmoil in the markets open interest in the segment crashed to Rs 85,000 crore. Trading volumes and rollover of positions got affected due to margin pressures and deep mark to market differences in several counters.

Traded turnover on both exchanges fell sharply to Rs 57,000 crore, almost half the daily volumes seen regularly. High implied volatility of puts and calls indicate volatile trading pattern.

F&O settlement without any major hiccups and rollover positions may dictate short term direction. Avoid large positions and trade lightly till markets stabilise. Brutal and savage selling was seen across the board.

Many counters witnessed manic intraday swings of over 40 per cent, fallout of excessive speculation. Highs recorded on Fridays rally are key levels to watch. Stocks failing to cross the highs may see attracting selling again. Contemplate shorts if indices fail to sustain above 18,800 and 5,560 levels.

Technology and FMCG sectors showed good resilience. Buy Infosys, Satyam and ITC on declines for target prices of Rs 1,850, Rs 475 and Rs 250 in next few weeks.

TechMahindra, Mphasis, Redington, 3i Infotech and Tulip look good for short term. Banking stocks look good for accumulation at current levels. Results of many PSU banks are better than expectations. Use sharp declines for buying. Among the private banks Axis Bank and Kotak Bank are good buys at lower levels.

Ranbaxy, Orchid, Divi Labs and Matrix have come out with decent numbers. Buying is suggested at current levels. Use the current sharp correction in sugar stocks like Shree Renuka Sugars, Bajaj Hindustan and Triveni for accumulation.

Specific stocks looking good at lower levels are APIL, Educomp, Bharat Electronics, Welspun Gujarat, Praj Inds, Havells, Biocon and JP Associates. Diversification is less important in a bull market when a rising tide lifts nearly all boats. But when stocks are falling, some groups really get pummelled while others hold up surprisingly well.

The key is reacting to extremes in stock prices, not to the market's short term direction.
Select recent picks looking good after the recent wave of selling are Jayant Agro Organics, Hind Dorr Oliver, Cubex Tubings, Intense Technologies and Radico Khaitan. Radico Khaitan is one of larger players in liquor industry owning important brands like 8PM. Heineken buy of S&N's stake in UB likely to improve valuations of liquor stocks. Accumulate at current levels for good medium term returns. Jayant Agro has approved placement of equity to a global major at Rs 105. Stay invested and buy at current levels for steady returns. Cubex Tubings got listed recently on the NSE also. The stock is available at a low P/E of just 5. Buy at current levels. Intense has won recently MTN Irancell project from MTN group an established market leader in West Asia and African telecom space. Many more orders are in offing. Buy at current levels. Results of Hind Dorr Oliver are reportedly very good. Accumulate at current levels. ¦ After the recent carnage select midcaps looking good for medium term are Exide Inds, Jain Irrigation, Sintex Inds and Amara Raja. Falling lead prices and growing auto sector spells good tidings for battery majors like Exide and Amara Raja. Results have also been very good. Exide has embedded value of its insurance division. Buy the stocks at current levels. Jain Irrigation is one of the major beneficiaries of Govt's initiatives to improve agricultural productivity. The company is leading supplier of micro irrigation equipment and second largest globally.

DETAILS OF THIS WEEK TRADING CALLS 21.1.08

W eighed down by global factors and liquidity drain caused by the mega IPO of Reliance Power, markets wilted under bear grip. All emerging markets witnessed brutal sell-off triggered by fears about a likely recession in the US, the world's largest economy.

Recording its steepest weekly point loss of 1,814 points the Sensex closed at 19,014 and the Nifty shed 495 points to end at 5,705 during the week ended. Leading the selling brigade were FIIs, which resorted to heavy selling to cover up sub prime losses in the US.

Market breadth was also extremely negative reflecting nervousness among market players. Fairly good results from many of the frontline companies failed to enthuse the markets. Analysts expect buying support to come from domestic institutions and insurance companies which are flush with fund flows. Refunds from Reliance Power IPO in coming days may also ease the liquidity pressure in secondary market.

Watch out for global cues as expectations over liberal Fed cut are building up. Pre Budget rally looks likely after the end of current F&O settlement. Chartists predict broad trading range of 18,400 to 19,900 for the Sensex and 5,555 to 5,940 for the Nifty. The 50-day moving averages at 19,900 and 5,940 on the indices are key trend levels.

Failure to cross them will confirm lower top/lower bottom scenario. Expect resistance on the upside at 19,340 and 19,780 on the Sensex and 5,840 and 5,960 on the Nifty. Watch out for volumes below 18,800 and 5,620 on the indices, panic may see the indices dropping very sharply.

With much of the froth of recent euphoria getting skimmed look out for good trading and investment opportunities in the current correction. Do not try to outguess the market. Do not let emotion or prejudice warp your judgment.

F&O segment T rue to predictions the week ended saw heightened volatility. Trading volumes were low and only the decline on Thursday was accompanied by high volumes. Open interest is still above Rs 1,25,000 crore and is a cause for concern. While implied volatility has shot up sharply to 35 per cent indicating high volatility, put/call ratio decreased implying that the fall would get arrested shortly.

Avoid aggressive short selling as rebound is imminent. Key levels for Nifty futures are 5,850 on upside and 5,620 on downside. Selling was seen across the board in all sectors. Realty, oil & gas, banking, metals and power witnessed savage cuts. FMCG, IT and cement sectors showed some resilience. FMCG and IT are under owned sectors and look good defensive bets.

Stay invested in HLL and ITC. Expectations of good results kept cement counters concrete. Contrarian gains look possible in ACC, Grasim, Ambuja and Ultratech. Despite good delivery of results IT stocks continued to languish on lack of buying interest.

Long term investors can use the opportunity to accumulate quality counters like Infosys, TCS and others for excellent long term returns. Medium term earnings of ferrous companies like Tata Steel, SAIL, JSW Steel and others are likely to be strong as almost all of them are fully integrated from raw material point of view.

Reports indicate that global HR coil prices have shot up from $620 to $800 per tonne in last few weeks. Buy at current levels Tata Steel and JSW Steel for target prices of Rs 950 and Rs 1,450 in next two months.

Pharma stocks are witnessing modest buying interest. Results of Ranbaxy, Nicholas and Orchid were better than expectations. Stock specific buying interest is likely in the sector. Brutal selling in RIL and IDBI may be short lived. Attempt buying in the counters at closer to Rs 2,750 and Rs 140 levels for short term.

True to repeated warnings of that too many stocks in ban period indicate excessive speculation sharp cuts were seen in counters like NFCL, Parsvnath and others. Do not buy more stock than you can safely carry.

Excellent working of Seshasayee Paper is reflected in the results. In the first nine months itself the company has nearly clocked profit of last financial year. Post completion of mill development plan by March performance is likely to be still better. Buy on declines for one year price target of Rs 400. ¦ Suprajit Engineering, manufacturer of mechanical control cables for both automotive applications and non-auto, like material handling equipment, earthmovers and washing machines has embarked on aggressive expansion through both organic growth and acquisitions. The company has commenced operations at second unit at Manesar and acquired Gills Cables in the UK. Buy the emerging engineering stock on declines for excellent returns in medium term. ¦ Buy in the current decline stocks like Zen Technologies, Amara Raja, Jayaswal Neco, Omnitech Info, Tilaknagar Inds, Essar Shipping and Oil Country which have touched 52week highs in the past week for short term gains. Entry of RJ likely to sustain the momentum in Zen counter. Good fund buying seen in Omnitech Info. Mining and integrated manufacturing story seen in Jayaswal Neco. Open offer rumours and unlocking of value in subsidiaries floating in Essar Shipping.



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DETAILS OF TRADING CALLS IN THIS WEEK

D uring the week ended markets witnessed high volatility, and choppy trade saw midcap and smallcap stocks decline sharply. Uncertainty and indecisive trend was evident in the two way movement of the benchmark indices. While the Sensex on the Bombay Stock Exchange managed to gain 141 points to close at 20,828, the Nifty on the National Stock Exchange shed 74 points to end at 6,200.

After witnessing strong run in the past few weeks midcap and smallcap stocks have started to correct sharply. The CNX Midcap and the BSE Smallcap indices lost 6.9 per cent and 8.6 per cent respectively.

Market breadth was weak in the last week, market players attributing it to heavy sales by investors who are showing strong appetite for the IPO of Reliance Power.

Weak US markets and uninspiring IIP numbers were dampeners but have raised hopes of interest rate cut. Encouraging results from tech biggie Infosys failed to trigger any rally in the tech sector. Marginal price hike in petrol and diesel is likely to be decided in the coming week.

Barring any unexpected negative results surprises, markets are likely to remain flat up to the Budget with occasional bouts of volatility. Narrow breadth of the pullback rally is a concern and indicates a lack of buying conviction from the retail investors.

For the indices to move higher, participation is required from more stocks from more sectors. For the week ahead chartists predict trading band of 20,340 to 21,260 for the Sensex and 6,000 to 6,530 for the Nifty. Strong support is evident at 20,500 and 20,260 for the Sensex and 6,120 and 6,040 for the Nifty. Key trend determining levels on the indices are at 20,020 and 6,020.

Avoid aggressive longs and initiate fresh positions only if indices cross last week's highs. Put trailing stops to protect profits. Where there is panic, there is also opportunity. Luck is the opportunity you take when it presents itself.

F&O segment D uring the week, trading volumes were on lower side in the derivatives segment. High intraday volatility is taking toll on traders. Nifty futures were seen facing stiff resistance around 6,330 and 6,350 level and good support was visible at 6,120. Risk takers can attempt short straddle at 6,200 strike to take advantage of prevailing volatility.

Encouraging Q3 results from tech major Infosys and second rung Mastek and IGate failed to enthuse the markets. Despite volatile rupee-dollar environments, good management of finances and holding of operating margins reflect that worst is over for the tech companies. Contrarian buying is suggested in technology stocks.

Buy TCS, Wipro, Satyam, Polaris and HCL Tech at current levels. Expectedly possible unlocking of embedded value of subsidiaries triggered good buying interest in ICICI Bank. Good results from Axis Bank vaulted the stock to new highs. Use corrections to accumulate both private and public sector banks. Metals hit rough patch with BSE Metals index falling by 7.6 per cent. However good results may see the stocks recover lost ground. Buy at current levels Tata Steel, Sterlite, Nalco and Hindalco. Ahead of Q3 results rumours of stock split or some very good news are back again in Reliance Inds. Punters tip price of Rs 3,450 in short term. With the spectrum issue slowly unfolding telecom stocks are back in the buy list. Buy RComm and Idea for surprising gains. Pricing pressures may see cement stocks fall some more.

Delay in payment of subsidy amount may keep fertiliser counters range bound. Riding piggy back on Reliance Power IPO power stocks continued to hold their recent gains. Avoid fresh buying for present as valuations look too pricey.

Realty stocks are witnessing good buying interest at lower levels. Buy DLF and Sobha Developers for further gains. After good run up, sugar stocks encountered profit booking at higher levels. Use sharp declines to take entry. Side counters and momentum plays like RNRL, RPL, Essar Oil, Ispat and others may witness sharp fluctuations in near term. Remember that as many as 17 stocks are under ban in F&O indicating rampant speculation and overbought condition.

Caution is the watch word. Timing the market, and not having any sense of how long you should hold the stock will not work in the markets.

Hind. Dorr-Oliver Ltd is a leading engineering company engaged in turnkey projects to serve a diverse range of industries like environmental engineering, pulp and paper, chemicals and fertilisers. The company has executed some outstanding phosphatic fertiliser plants, systems for water management, and the petrochemical and oil and gas industries. The company has secured mega orders for design, supply, engineering and construction of integrated effluent treatment plants from IOC and HPCL. Excellent results are forecast from the company. Buy at current levels for target price of Rs 300. ¦ Jayant Agro-Organics Ltd (JAOL) is an emerging global oleo chemical company with leadership in the castor based speciality chemicals industry. The company offers the largest range of Castor-based products in the world and global giant Japan's Mitsui & Co has taken 24 per cent stake in JAOL's fully owned subsidiary Ihsedu. Another Japanese major Itoh Oil Chemicals is taking 4.54 per cent equity in JAOL. Buy this budding global giant castor speciality chemical for target price of Rs 250. ¦ Technologies has fallen from its recent highs on orchestrated selling. Savvy punters are accumulating the counter aggressively. Boom in valuations for online advertising and social networking portals may see the stock regain its old glory. Buy at current levels ahead of results for price target of Rs 700. After moving up sharply in past few weeks the stock prices of Videocon Inds and Empee Distilleries have corrected to reasonable valuations. Datacom, a subsidiary of Videocon Inds has secured telecom license also. Unlocking of value by demerger of different divisions is on track. Buy at current levels for target price of Rs 950. Empee Dist is likely to report excellent Q3 results. Announcement of positive news is on cards. Buy for Rs 425 target.

DETAILS OF THIS WEEK TRADING CALLS

M arkets ended the first week of the New Year on an optimistic note with both the benchmark indices the Sensex and the Nifty touching new highs. On weekly basis the Sensex moved up by 480 points to close at 20,687 and the Nifty shot up by 194 points to finish at 6,274.
Despite not having much encouraging cues from global markets and continued selling from FII's, the Indian markets were on a roll on strong buying from domestic institutions and better retail investor participation. While FM's plea to bank chiefs to reduce lending rates to maintain economic growth is positive, the weekend decline in the US markets on fears of recession and soaring crude oil prices are dampeners for the week ahead.

In the short term market direction will be determined by the Q3 results and global cues. Chartists predict trading band of 20,180 to 21,360 for the Sensex and 5,900 to 6,560 for the Nifty for the coming week. Expect support for the indices on the downside at 20,200 and 20,040 and 6,120 and 6,020. Key trend deciding levels are 19,600 and 5,900 in the event of correction, and if present momentum continues 22,000 and 6,800 are the targets in medium term.

With the indices in uncharted territory, be prepared for unexpected sharp up or down moves. Strong outperformance of midcaps and smallcaps in the past few weeks has seen many "penny" stocks joining the party. Do not buy "cats and dogs", buy only good standard stocks that have stood the test of time. Many "stories" are doing rounds of all kinds of stocks, check the genuineness of the "script" before investing.

F&O segment M irroring the bullish sentiment in the cash market, volumes continued to be robust in the derivatives segment. Sentiment indicators like open interest, implied volatility and put/call ratio indicate volatile times in short term. Implied volatility has crossed 30 per cent foretelling sharp swings in near term. After trading at premium for most of the days Nifty futures moved into discount reflecting build up of short positions. Hedge longs in stock futures by buying Nifty6000 put option. Bulls tip buying of Nifty6100 call option for surprising gains.

Expectedly banking and power stocks continued to hog limelight on spirited buying interest. Buy PSU banks on declines. Power stocks look pricey at current levels. Avoid fresh longs for present. Financial services stocks were in keen demand on expectations of good results and buoyant outlook. Buy on declines India Infoline, Motilal Oswal, Edelweiss and Kotak Bank. Sugar and fertiliser stocks are attracting buying on every dip indicating rerating of the sectors. Reports of cane arrears disputes and late start of crushing season affecting sugar production in the current season are doing rounds.

Industry analysts estimate the production to fall to 28 million tonnes from earlier estimated figure of 33 million tonnes. Buy Shree Renuka, Bajaj Hindustan, Triveni and Balrampur Chini on every correction for steady gains in medium term. Results of Infosys will dictate the fate of tech nology counters feel industry watchers. Keep an eye on the guidance and strategy of tech giant to combat rupee strength. Contrarian's advice buying of tech counters in the current weakness for long term. Dollar weakness may give fillip to metal stocks. Stay invested in Nalco, Sterlite and Tata Steel. FMCG counters are back in reckoning on value buying from savvy players. Buy HLL, Dabur, Colgate and ITC on declines for short term gains. Capital goods and engineering stocks may witness buying at lower ahead of results. Use corrections to buy BHEL, L&T, Siemens, Punj Lloyd and Praj Inds.

Pokarna Ltd is the country's number one granite company and also has apparel division with branded retail chain under the label of Stanza. The company is setting up quartz stone unit which is likely to be commissioned in the next couple of months and is also likely to demerge its textile division into a separate company. Having overcome the hiccups on export front due to weakening dollar the company is well on its way to glory. Improving volumes in the counter indicate good accumulation. Low equity of just Rs 6.2 crore and B.V. of Rs 136 makes the stock good investment bet for price target of Rs 350 in medium term. ¦ MRO Tek is an established hardware player across all the access networking product segments catering to a diversified and growing client base like Bharti Tele, Reliance Info and other telecom majors. Rapid expansion of telecom tower networks by different telecom majors and its recent tie up with Japanese major NTT Comm augur well for the company's growth. Benefiting from weakness in dollar and booming telecom sector the company is expected to report excellent results. Buy at current levels for target price of Rs 250 in medium term. ¦ KCP is a company with interests in heavy engineering, cement, sugar, hydel power, IT and biotechnology. Buoyancy in many of its divisions has seen the company report trailing 12 month EPS of Rs 51. To utilise the business opportunity presented by its real estate assets (reportedly worth about Rs 500 crore) in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh and invest the surplus funds from the buoyant cement and engineering businesses the company is diversifying into new business areas like container freight stations, hotels, commercial complexes and wind farm. Sources close to company indicate a liberal bonus issue in near future. Buy this asset rich stock for target price of Rs 1,250. ¦ Savvy market players are targeting Andhra Sugars, Tube Investments, TTK Healthcare, Valecha Engg, Monsanto, Essar Shipping and Shreyas Shipping. Sum of the parts game is gaining strength in Andhra Sugars. Soaring volumes at 52week highs indicate short term target of Rs 225. Tube Investments belonging to the Muruggapa group has huge investment portfolio of the group companies in its books. Recent fancy for holding company stocks may see the counter vault to new highs. Buy on declines for target price of Rs 140. Demerger of group company TTK Prestige has put spotlight on TTK Healthcare also. Stay invested for further gains. Interested buying in Essar Shipping was clearly evident. News flow expected in near term to drive the counter to new highs. Logistics play evident in Shreyas Shipping.

VADILAL ENTERPRISES GOING LIKE ANOTHER STC INDIA IN COMING DAYS

ADAG GROUP CHAIRMAN ANIL AMBANI EYEING ON VADILAL FOR ACQUISITION , SO KEEP WATCH THIS COUNTER TO ACCUMULATE BETWEEN 135 LEVELS FOR A 4 DIGIT TARGET IN COMING MONTHS , MAY GO TO F & O ALSO IN COMING MONTHS, BEST OF LUCK

TATA MOTORS HEADING TOWARDS 1200 IN SHORT TERM

TATA MOTORS HEADING TOWARDS 1200 IN SHORT TERM :-
Ford to focus on detailed talks with Tata Motors
2008-01-03 15:28:50 Source : CNBC-TV18
Ford has announced that they will focus on detailed talks with Tata Motors. They added that a considerable amount of work is left and there is no final decision yet. The company will hold substantive discussions with Tata Motors in the coming weeks, reports CNBC-TV18.
Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Roger Maddison, National Secretary of Unite, Jaguar Land Rover Trade Union, said the preferred bidder could be Tata Motors. He added that One Equity and M&M are still in the race for JLR.
Union is putting pressure on the management to back Tata Motors, he stated. The Tatas do not foresee any problem with regards to pension, commented Maddison.
CNBC-TV18 has learnt from sources that the Tatas will get full access to JLR financials.
Tata Motors said that they had positive discussions with Ford so far and are entering more detailed and focused discussions with the company. They added that these are complex discussions and there is still work to be done. Tata Motors is pleased by the progress of talks until now and are very positive on the prospects of business, going forward. They hope both parties can reach an agreement in the coming weeks.
The JLR union has said that they want plant and job security to be the main criteria for discussions and the discussions must include wages, pensions, terms and conditions.
According to CNBC-TV18’s Sumantra Barooah, Ford deal is going to be quite a complex deal. And the final announcement of the deal being signed, can take anywhere between a couple of weeks or perhaps over a month. According to sources, as many as 40-50 different agreements, which will address issues like power train supply by Ford and also short-term servicing and IPR related issues, he says.
Swati Khandelwal of CNBC-TV18 says that the Union has been backing Tata Motors ever since they made presentations on November 20, when they met. So, Tata Motors have been in the race. But now that the tables have turned to Tata Motors, sources say that they will access to the accounts of both Land Rover-Jaguar, full financial details of both these brands. She elaborates that there will get into intense discussions even on the bid price also.
Excerpts from CNBC-TV18’s exclusive interview with Roger Maddison:
Q: What have you been told by the Ford management?

A: Early this morning, Ford’s management said they expect an announcement within the next hour. So, by 11 am hopefully they will be announcing to the workforce whom Ford have chosen as the preferred bidder. The UK trade unions are very hopeful that that preferred bidder would be Tata.

Q: Any conformation then on whether or not it is indeed Tata Motors and is there any other names that are still in the fray?

A: As far as we know, there is One Equity led by Jacques Nasser and the M&M Group. As we said before Christmas, all our pressure was being put on the company to support the Tata bid. We do believe that it is the best bid to secure a long-term future for the people that we represent in UK and a long-term future for Jaguar-Land Rover. They were very impressive people when they made their presentation to us. We are very hopeful that Tata is the preferred bidder but there is no conformation on that yet. Hopefully, that should be within the next hour.

Q: Who will be giving the final confirmation to the Union as well? Do you have any idea what this deal has been valued at?

A: No, we have got no idea of the value. We have never been preview to that information from the start. We are just waiting now. It would be somebody from the HR team who would give confirmation. But, hopefully, the word would go out to the shop floor from the managers of different plants.

Q: Have you got any undertaking from the Tata Group about the maintenance of pensions, jobs or any commitments at all?

A: Not very much. We did have some when we spoke very briefly when we met in November with the three potential buyers. At that time, Tata said that they did not foresee any problems with pensions or anything like that.
But they have got to go through the books and look at it, do all their duties to make sure that they still want the company, even after they do all that. I am pretty sure that they do.

They seem a very well organised company and have not gone this far to fall out. But we have obviously said to all the three bidders that we would want more detailed discussions, with regards to terms and conditions- pensions, job security, source and agreement, things like that. Whoever the preferred bidder is, we would want to meet with them soon and discuss those things in more detail.

GT OFF SHORE HEADING TOWARDS TGT OF 1200

DEAL ALL, GT OFF SHORE GIVEN IN CASH PICKS WHEN IT IS NOT TRADING IN F N O , AND WE PREDICTED SO BEFORE FOR THIS RUN , ENJOY MORE TO COME IN THIS SCRIP , STAY INVESTED FOR A TARGET OF 15000 IN 2 YEARS IF U R REAL INVESTOR

CELESTIAL LABS READY FOR A BIG BLAST

DEAR ALL,

CELESTIAL LABS READY FOR A BIG MOVE FOR A TGT OF 150 IN COMING MONTHS, CATCH BEFORE IT BLAST