I t was a week of mild recovery for the markets. Recovering from a weak start, the markets rallied strongly from midweek on positive news flow like lower inflation data, the PM's statements that Indian economy will sustain its 9 per cent growth rate and mixed global cues. On the Bombay Stock Exchange the Sensex gained 650 points to close at 18,115 and the Nifty on the National Stock Exchange moved up by 183 points to end at 5,303.
Market breadth turned positive reflecting the change in sentiment. However, volumes continued to be low indicating lack of confidence. Things cannot get any worse from present levels feel market men.
Renewed buying by FIIs after a long hibernation, gave steam for the pullback rally. Anil Ambani's move to reduce the cost of acquisition for shareholders of Reliance Power by bonus issue may improve the sentiment and also set a new benchmark in corporate governance.
It is pertinent to note that despite the failure of recent IPOs new fund offerings from mutual funds have received excellent subscription reflecting investors shift to safety.
Market players expect the FM to give a positive growth budget addressing both domestic and global concerns.
Fears of fallout from the US markets are not ruled out in the event of escalation of bond insurers' problems. Pre-budget rally may see the indices attempting to cross 19,000 and 5,800 levels in near term.
Expect strong resistance to the Sensex at 18,660 and 19,000 and for the Nifty at 5,545 and 5,820. Key levels of support for the indices are at 17,800 and 5,060.
Stay invested for present. Hope for the best, but expect the worst. Being braced for disaster - by diversifying and by learning market history - can help keep you from panicking. Every good investment performs badly some of the time. Intelligent investors stick around until the bad turns back to good.
F&O segment D espiteoverall derivative improvement in the sentiment volumes in the segment continued to be sluggish. FII's were seen covering their Nifty short positions and doing shopping in select stocks. Buy Nifty 5,400 call option for surprising gains, tip punters. Crucial support level for Nifty futures is at 5,150. Sentiment indicators like open interest, implied volatility and put/call ratio indicate continued volatility with positive bias.
Leadership for the rally is being provided by biggies like RIL, BHEL, Reliance Capital and Tata Steel.
Banks and realty stocks led by the State Bank of India and Unitech have begun to show comeback signs. Rebound in infrastructure stocks was seen with GMR Infra leading from the front. After the recent correction sugar stocks are back in reckoning offering good trading moves.
Technology and select pharma counters are witnessing good accumulation. Among the stock futures looking good for upside gains are Tata Steel, Gail, Hindalco, M&M, Ranbaxy, JP Associates, Balrampur, Hotel Leela and ITC.
Punters tip IDBI and IFCI for price targets of Rs 145 and Rs 85 in the near-term. Among the side counters showing interesting patterns are Bombay Rayon, AIA Engg, Ballarpur and Crompton Greaves.
Momentum counters led by R-Pack may trigger volumes game again. Buy on declines Reliance Capital, Reliance Communication, RNRL and Reliance Petroleum.
Further gains not ruled out in fertiliser counters. Stay invested in NFCL and Chambal Fert. The past is not prologue. On stock market, what goes up must come down, and what goes way up usually comes down with a sickening crunch. Never buy a stock or mutual fund because it has been going up. Intelligent investors buy low and sell high, not the other way around.
Select cash group counters like Man Inds, Haldyn Glass, KLG Systel, PTC, Whirlpool, Indus Fila, Sandur Manganese and ECE Inds are witnessing good buying from savvy market players and funds. Excellent order book and buoyant user industry spells good times for Man Inds. Haldyn Glass is expanding its range of pharma packing in tune with changing needs. Buy on declines.
MNC major Whirlpool is reportedly making its Indian outfit outsourcing hub for exports to other Asian nations. Turnaround of operations indicated. Add on declines.
KLG Systel and Indus Fila are attracting good buying interest at lower levels. Savvy punters were seen accumulating mining company Sandur Manganese. Something is cooking say observers. ¦ One dark horse recom mendation doing the rounds is Shloka Infotech. It belongs to Yash Birla group and the name of the company is being changed to Birla Shloka Edutech. The company is reportedly expanding in a big way in the online education segment. Punters tip target of Rs 75 in coming months. ¦ Huge subscription to Reliance Natural Resources Fund (Rs 5,660 crore) has put the spotlight on mining and natural resource dependent companies. Companies reportedly on the radar of the funds are Sarda Energy, Electrosteel Castings, Usha Martin, Sesa Goa, Gujarat NRE Coke, Jai Balaji Industries, Ferro Alloy Corp, Ashapura Minechem and Kalyani Steel. Keep a watch on investments made by RNRF to spot winners.
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WHEN A INDEX OR SCRIP OPEN,HIGH ARE SAME AND LOWER THAN PREVIOUS CLOSE {REMEMBER MUST BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS CLOSE} THEN DON'T GO LONG IN THAT SCRIP WHERE AS IN OTHER WORDS , YOU CAN TRY SHORT IN THAT COUNTER
DISCLOSURE:- THIS IS MY PRACTICAL OBSERVATION IN MY TRADING JOURNEY AND I PUT THIS AS A THEORY FOR MY OWN TRADES , THIS IS NOT ANY ONE'S , OR NOT WRITTEN IN ANY TECHNICAL BOOKS
SOME COPY CATS COPYING THIS
TOTAL SENTENCE TO THEIR BLOGS OR WEBSITES
SO, IT IS YOUR RISK IF U DO ACTIONS ON THIS THEORY
Monday, February 18, 2008
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